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   MSGID: 167717.weather@1:2320/105 2dab58f5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 180540   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 180538   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind   
   gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee   
   Valleys.   
      
   ...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys...   
      
   Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the   
   northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is   
   forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject   
   negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period.   
   Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across   
   the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along   
   a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor   
   destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast   
   soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an   
   elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band   
   of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given   
   the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary   
   layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even   
   so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the   
   convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt   
   appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time.   
      
   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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