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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1031 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Wed Dec 17 2025 - 12Z Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Middle Texas Coast...   
   A fairly defined southern stream shortwave is noted across the   
   Northwest Gulf with impressive shield expansion within the larger   
   scale diffluent flow. Strong southerly western Gulf LLJ initiated   
   thunderstorms along/parallel to the southern Texas coast and cold   
   pool interaction and deeper layer steering flow is allowing for   
   cells/convective line to propagate eastward and remain well=20   
   offshore. However, as the upper- level cirrus shield clears to the=20   
   east, but low level moisture flux continues toward the Middle Texas   
   coast and coastal plain; insolation will allow for some increased=20   
   modest instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop.=20   
   Cell motions will be very slow and may allow for longer duration=20   
   increased rainfall totals. Sandy soils will largely absorb these=20   
   modest rates/totals, but there remains a non-zero potential for=20   
   some flooding concerns particularly if the rates intersect with=20   
   poor drainage urban centers, though the coverage does not warrant=20   
   an increase in categorical level.   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Dec 18 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 19 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN   
   OREGON EXTENDING INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WASHINGTON AND   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The next in a series of atmospheric rivers will arrive along the   
   west coast of North America early on Thursday. The threat for   
   significant rainfall remains elevated across the western half of   
   Oregon with a focal point for maximum precipitation centered over   
   the southern Cascades and the adjacent valleys on either   
   side...although a subtle northward shift was noted in the 17/00Z   
   guidance. The key in this threat is the projected "spillover" of   
   heavier precip to the leeward side of the Cascades due to a   
   pronounced 700mb jet from the Pacific leading to significant   
   Pacific moisture being drawn inland. This is the area where ARI   
   forecasts are hovering between the 25-100 year exceedance   
   intervals, matching the output from the past several model runs and   
   deterministic QPF from WPC. As a result, Day 2 excessive rainfall   
   outlook was expanded the Slight Risk northward across portions of   
   the Washington Cascades in response to the subtle northward shift   
   noted earlier...with little reason to expand any farther eastward.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 19 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 20 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY OVER   
   PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The atmospheric river that came on-shore on Thursday will be on-   
   going across much of Oregon as the Day 3 period begins at 12Z on   
   Friday. A well-defined plume of deep layer moisture will continue   
   to be drawn from the eastern North Pacific Ocean eastward into   
   parts of the northern Great Basin by fast westerly flow aloft. IVT   
   values at or above 600 units is forecast to cover much of Oregon   
   initially...then weaken as the axis of the moisture plume and   
   associated precipitation settles into northern California. The   
   system looks to have trended a bit more progressive on Friday than   
   suggested by earlier runs...so some of the QPF values over Oregon   
   and northwest California have come down a bit. Even so...opted to   
   maintain a large amount of continuity with Slight Risk area over   
   northwest California and a portion of adjacent southwest Oregon   
   given the possibility of further wobbles in the placement of the   
   axis or variations in model QPF. As it stands...the area average   
   precipitation amounts are currently in the range of 1-2 inches   
   with localized higher amounts maxima in the terrain.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ie1hD08vWPSf3jPLJvpuTCkzAxDGoHTmB8Lpv2jyxul=   
   3NYywpKrwjd7jqy1RXMMFlC5GF6qVM9r-sIDtfgQKwniB_o$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ie1hD08vWPSf3jPLJvpuTCkzAxDGoHTmB8Lpv2jyxul=   
   3NYywpKrwjd7jqy1RXMMFlC5GF6qVM9r-sIDtfgQYAgLknU$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ie1hD08vWPSf3jPLJvpuTCkzAxDGoHTmB8Lpv2jyxul=   
   3NYywpKrwjd7jqy1RXMMFlC5GF6qVM9r-sIDtfgQUKufQV8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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