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   ACUS02 KWNS 170653   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 170651   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1251 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER   
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the   
   Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level   
   trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across   
   the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will   
   continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by   
   early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low   
   will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing   
   cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.   
      
   ...OH/TN Valleys...   
   The cold front is expected to interact with the richer low-level   
   moisture early in the period across Illinois and Missouri with a   
   shallow line of thunderstorms expected to develop. In addition, some   
   weak elevated instability may develop ahead of this front as cooling   
   mid-level temperatures result in sufficient elevated instability for   
   storms. Low-level instability ahead of the front is expected to   
   remain quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg). A strong frontal circulation   
   should overcome the weak instability and produce sufficient lift for   
   lightning. Any updrafts deep enough to produce lightning, and with   
   minimal inhibition (seemingly around 55F surface dewpoint) may also   
   have at least some isolated damaging wind threat given the 60 to 70   
   knot low-level jet around 1km.   
      
   Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where   
   upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the   
   more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be   
   weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will   
   continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the   
   front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal   
   heating.   
      
   ...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...   
   Strong storms and potential supercells are expected over the warm   
   Gulf Stream waters Thursday evening. Some guidance indicates surface   
   based instability may advect inland across far eastern North   
   Carolina which would allow some of these stronger storms to move   
   inland. Current expectation is for stronger storms and 60+F   
   dewpoints to remain mostly offshore, so no marginal risk will be   
   added.   
      
   Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,   
   some increase in storm strength is anticipated as mid 50s dewpoints   
   east of the Appalachians provide weak instability to fuel the   
   storms. If more aggressive inland moisture advection occurs, similar   
   to the scenario mentioned above, some marginal damaging wind threat   
   could materialize given the strong wind field.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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