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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 170547   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 170545   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1145 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE   
   NORTHWEST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Sporadic severe gusts may accompany low-topped convection across   
   parts of the Northwest this morning into midday.   
      
   ...Northwest...   
   A vigorous shortwave trough will move quickly east along the   
   Canadian border from WA to the northern Great Plains by evening.   
   Intense tropospheric flow will accompany this wave, yielding   
   widespread high winds across much of the Northwest to the northern   
   Great Plains. Deep lee surface cyclone over southern AB should reach   
   the Red River Valley of the North. Attendant Pacific cold front will   
   sweep east with a tight pressure gradient in its wake.   
      
   Low-topped convection may be ongoing at 12Z along the Columbia Basin   
   portion of the front. Most guidance also suggests an increase in   
   low-topped convection should occur towards late morning across parts   
   of the Snake River Plain as the front pushes east. Surface-based   
   instability will remain scant in both regimes with morning   
   temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Despite the cool temperatures,   
   this may be sufficient for sporadic lightning flashes amid strong   
   large-scale ascent. With very strong surface winds accompanying the   
   front, both regimes could be coincident with severe wind gusts.   
      
   The bulk of sustained severe wind speeds should become primarily   
   confined along/east of the Rockies in MT to the CO Front Range this   
   afternoon per HREF/REFS guidance. However, potential for severe   
   convective gusts appears too conditional with negligible   
   surface-based buoyancy anticipated.   
      
   ..Grams/Wendt.. 12/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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