TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167681.weather@1:2320/105 2da97810   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 161929   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 161927   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0127 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE   
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection   
   across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight into early Wednesday   
   morning.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous   
   discussion for more information.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 12/16/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   A strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will   
   amplify today and reach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight.   
   This trough will be accompanied by an enhanced deep-layer wind   
   field, with 90-100+ kt winds at 500 mb and around 50-80 kt flow in   
   the lowest 1-3 km AGL. Low-level moisture should also gradually   
   increase tonight ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.   
   Low-topped convection may accompany the front, initially approaching   
   the WA Coast by late evening, and then more interior areas   
   overnight/early Wednesday.   
      
   Surface-based buoyancy will remain quite meager due to poor lapse   
   rates aloft and the time of night. Still, rather strong low-level   
   gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as   
   the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and occasional strong   
   to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of this   
   low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level   
   winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight   
   and early morning hours Wednesday. However, it remains quite   
   uncertain if these convectively enhanced winds will be substantially   
   stronger than the background gradient wind field. Therefore, the   
   Marginal Risk has been maintained with no changes.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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