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   ACUS03 KWNS 161925   
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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER   
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the   
   Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley   
   on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it   
   moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong   
   cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across   
   the OH and TN Valleys.   
      
   At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into   
   southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and   
   reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.   
      
   Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as   
   far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the   
   ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit   
   heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.   
   However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least   
   result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low   
   even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft   
   will be warmer.   
      
   Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during   
   the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow   
   off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with   
   activity along the cold front.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 12/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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