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   ACUS03 KWNS 160830   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 160829   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the   
   Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level   
   trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across   
   the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will   
   continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by   
   early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low   
   will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing   
   cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.   
      
   ...OH/TN Valleys...   
   A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold   
   front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period.   
   Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold   
   front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints   
   will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the   
   snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture   
   advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a   
   zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only   
   marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective   
   line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will   
   support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.   
      
   Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where   
   upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the   
   more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be   
   weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will   
   continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the   
   front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal   
   heating.   
      
   ...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...   
   Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,   
   moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina   
   and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the   
   region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind   
   threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree   
   of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly   
   the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with   
   60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some   
   threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with   
   minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region   
   in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast   
   trends towards greater instability.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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