TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167663.weather@1:2320/105 2da8c762   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 160655   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 160654   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain   
   and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to   
   scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the   
   Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over   
   the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the   
   day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British   
   Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold   
   front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low   
   will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern   
   Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast   
   through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening   
   and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.   
      
   ...Northern Rockies Vicinity...   
   A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold   
   front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern   
   Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with   
   additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the   
   line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a   
   very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty   
   winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary   
   limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.   
      
   ...Midwest...   
   Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the   
   Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2   
   period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the   
   rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but   
   sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z   
   Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen   
   Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent   
   within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated   
   instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development   
   between 06Z and 12Z.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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