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   FOUS11 KWBC 150848   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   348 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025 - 12Z Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Some lake enhanced snow for Michigan this morning ahead of a   
   shortwave trough currently over the Arrowhead of MN. The greater   
   impacts are on the eastern Great Lakes where flow is already   
   backing westerly. Brief single-banding LES occurs this afternoon   
   off Lake Erie into the South Towns of Buffalo where Day 1 PWPF for   
   >4" are around 60%. The greater LES formation is this evening with   
   single-banding into the Tug Hill Plateau through the night before   
   tapering off Tuesday morning in notable warm air advection. The   
   saturated layer gets into the DGZ and the flow is fairly steady   
   state, so decent snows are forecast. Day 1 PWPF for >8" are around   
   80% for the Tug Hill.   
      
      
   ...Cascades and Northern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A lead warm atmospheric river (AR) will bring mostly rain to the   
   PacNW through early afternoon with very high snow levels around   
   9000ft. A shortwave trough brings a cold front through by this   
   evening which will lower snow levels this evening amid lighter QPF   
   to around 4000ft in WA 5000ft in northern OR. Day 1 PWPF for >8"   
   are limited to the higher WA Cascades.   
      
   Snow levels rise back to 5000ft in WA and 6000ft in OR Tuesday as   
   the next moisture surge pushes inland. However, a sharper shortwave   
   trough axis pushes across the Cascades by 12Z Wednesday. This   
   potent cold front brings a sharp drop in snow levels after 06Z   
   Wednesday to around 2000ft in WA and 4000ft in OR. Again, the   
   precip rates rapidly drop with the snow levels, but there should be   
   impactful snow at pass levels including Snoqualmie. Day 2.5 PWPF   
   for >8" are over 80% for most of the WA Cascades. Low snow levels   
   and precip rates persist then through Wednesday night.   
      
   Moisture and windy conditions will progress eastward over the   
   Northern Rockies this afternoon and much more so Tuesday night.   
   Day 1.5 snow probs for >8" are 30-60% over the northwestern MT   
   ranges. Day 2.5 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% over the western MT,   
   central ID, and northwest WY ranges with rapid drops in snow   
   levels.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.   
      
   Jackson   
      
      
   $$   
      
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