TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167632.weather@1:2320/105 2da7770f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 150700   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 150659   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest   
   on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also   
   possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest   
   coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move   
   onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.   
   Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold   
   front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line   
   of convection is expected to develop along the front as it   
   approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind   
   field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may   
   develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite   
   weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the   
   efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.   
   This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.   
   Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger   
   wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.   
      
   ...Texas Coastal Plain...   
   A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the   
   day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest   
   low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the   
   day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal   
   Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening   
   low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in   
   sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within   
   the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/15/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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