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   FOUS11 KWBC 141840   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   140 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Dec 15 2025 - 00Z Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Shortwave over western Ontario will dive southeastward tonight,=20   
   bringing a chance of light snow to the upper Lakes. The system will   
   bring a relatively brief period of lake enhanced snow to the lower   
   Lakes Monday followed by some lake effect snows off Ontario into=20   
   the Tug Hill before waning on Tuesday as heights rise. WPC=20   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are highest over the=20   
   eastern U.P., northwestern PA into NY, and most especially into the   
   Tug Hill as any banding will be rather variable.=20   
      
      
   ...Cascades and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A lead warm atmospheric river (AR) will bring mostly rain to the=20   
   PacNW Monday with high snow levels. Cooler post-frontal air mass=20   
   will allow for lowering snow levels Tuesday to around 4000-5000ft=20   
   amid lighter QPF. There, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of   
   snow are highest (>50%). The stronger/colder AR will push into the   
   region Wednesday though the highest PW/IVT anomalies will be south   
   of the region. Nevertheless, strong upslope flow will capitalize=20   
   on available moisture coincident with lowering snow levels to bring   
   modest accumulating snow to the passes. Snow levels by Wednesday=20   
   evening will drop to around 2000-2500ft (700mb temps down below   
   -12C) with still modest QPF over the region. Increasingly heavier   
    snow will push down the terrain and continue beyond this forecast   
    period (00Z Thursday). Through then, WPC probabilities for at   
    least 8 inches of snow are >50% above 2500ft or so (which includes   
    Snoqualmie Pass).=20   
      
   Moisture surge and breezy/windy conditions will progress eastward=20   
   into the Northern Rockies/Divide with WPC probabilities for at=20   
   least 8 inches of snow >50% above 5000ft (north) to around 8000ft=20   
   (south, over WY). WSSI-P is showing some probabilities of moderate=20   
   impacts from blowing snow over the higher elevations in MT into WY.   
      
      
      
   The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.=20   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9_tjz_IwQPRthuZ6wUbaCmmWc8O0jOXZgjxMcflb1cRhe=   
   kv_NaWx0Qh64XBCw6s3ZHL1cPXujRkgANFS9sLTzxEIHFw$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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