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   ACUS48 KWNS 140958   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 140956   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period   
   on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern   
   Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across   
   much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland,   
   warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on   
   D4/Wednesday.   
      
   By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East   
   Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present   
   north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level   
   jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong   
   shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still   
   struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height   
   falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO   
   Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley   
   northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will   
   remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any   
   severe weather threat would likely be marginal.   
      
   The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday,   
   will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal   
   severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe   
   weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS   
   River in its wake.   
      
   By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the   
   southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal   
   mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is   
   currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in   
   considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome   
   over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a   
   ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In   
   general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather   
   threat.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/14/2025   
      
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