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   FOUS11 KWBC 140851   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   351 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 17 2025   
      
      
   ...Mid-Atlantic through Southern New England...=20   
   Day 1...   
      
   Positive tilt to the trough rounding the mid-level low centered=20   
   over Lake Huron this morning will continue to dig southeast as it=20   
   shifts across the Northeast through this evening. Surface low=20   
   development is underway along the Delmarva coast with rapid=20   
   strengthening today as it shifts northeast out to sea. Decent fgen   
   driven snow banding with rates around 1"/hr will continue to shift   
   south over the Mid-Atlantic as they begin to wrap around the sfc=20   
   low. These bands have reached the southeast Mass Cape and Islands=20   
   where they will pivot through the day and become ocean/bay enhanced   
   this evening as the low begins to pull away. This should result in   
   around 0.75" QPF which will be all snow with totals tempered a bit   
   from still warm waters. Day 1 PWPF for >4" after 12Z is generally=20   
   limited to Cape Cod and the Islands with probabilities of 40-70%.=20   
      
   Day 1 PWPF for an additional 2" after 12Z are generally 40-70% from   
   Rhode Island across Long Island, down the Jersey shore through   
   lower Delaware with 30% probs into the Northern Neck of VA and the   
   southern Delmarva.=20   
      
   Upslope snow rates west of the Allegheny Front dwindle through=20   
   sunrise with Day 1 PWPF for an additional 2" after 12Z are generally   
   30-70% for elevations in central WV above 2500ft.=20   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Aforementioned low pressure system ejecting southeast from Lake   
   Huron today will activate Nly flow snow belts into the east-central   
   U.P. where Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 40-70%.   
      
   WNWly flow over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will veer   
   NNWly by this evening with pivoting bands from Erie and Ontario.   
   Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 30% inland from Erie, PA and 50-80% just   
   north of Syracuse.=20   
      
   Lull in LES expected tonight as low level ridging shifts east over=20   
   the Lakes. But a shortwave clipper approaches from the northwest   
   late tonight and crosses Monday with a decent, but transient swath   
   of lake enhanced snow over the northern Lakes before prompting   
   singl-band LES over the Eastern Great Lakes Monday night with the   
   DGZ centered on 850mb. Day 2 PWPF for >2" is 40-70% from the   
   Keweenaw Peninsula through the eastern U.P. and Tip of the Mitt   
   while there are 30% probs for >6" south of Buffalo and 60-80% for   
   the Tug Hill Plateau.=20   
      
   A return of ridging cuts off the eastern LES early Tuesday.   
      
      
   ...Cascades and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   Potent atmospheric river arrives early Monday morning to western=20   
   WA/OR with snow levels skyrocketing up to 9000ft over the Cascades.   
   A shortwave trough passage over WA late Monday quickly brings snow   
   levels on the North Cascades back down to 5000ft by the evening,=20   
   reaching 4000ft overnight. Lower precip rates are expected behind=20   
   the trough passage, with Day 2 PWPF for >6" limited to the higher   
   WA Cascades. However, snow levels rise only a little Tuesday ahead   
   of the next wave that arrives Wednesday night. Precip rates   
   increase as snow levels remains around 4500 to 6000ft on the WA/OR   
   Cascades. Day 3 PWPF for >8" is over 80% across the higher WA   
   Cascades. Moisture surges inland TUesday night with snow levels of   
   5000 to 6000ft over the ID/MT ranges where Day 3 PWPF for >6" are   
   40-80%.=20   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.=20   
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7rvAaj0lLWZVY_TM7YoX9IeN2Ah4F8vzFTtQgGyXcwy4Y=   
   xpcVr37fwinGgFe9tgIQhTfLNcNrbGExXJTyqGUJs5FyY8$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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