TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167593.weather@1:2320/105 2da587f6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 131949   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 131948   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025   
      
   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments   
   may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a   
   cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore.   
   Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this   
   afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the   
   potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/13/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/   
      
   ...Southeast TX/Southwest LA...   
   Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level   
   moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley.   
   This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow   
   surface cold front sags southward through the region.  Model   
   guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop   
   after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few   
   pre-frontal thunderstorms.  Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will   
   preclude organized severe storms.  However, small hail is possible   
   in the strongest cores tonight.   
      
   ...FL...   
   A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward   
   moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential   
   across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the   
   southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are   
   unlikely with these scenarios.   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426