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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 131501   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1001 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Dec 13 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...   
      
   A weak mid-level wave over the eastern Gulf will aid in increasing   
   mid-level flow/ascent across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent=20   
   Gulf Stream during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, low-level=20   
   moisture will increase across coastal areas as a weak surface=20   
   boundary/inverted trough becomes established just inland across the   
   Peninsula. PW values should increse into the 1.6-1.8 inch range=20   
   amid 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Meanwhile, point forecast soundings depict=20   
   favorable kinematic profiles for relatively slow-moving cells that=20   
   could impact urban areas of southeast Florida along the I-95=20   
   corridor. Local 1+ inch/hr rates are possible. Urban flash flooding   
   is possible in the 03-12Z timeframe this evening/tonight.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025   
      
   ..THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...   
      
   Maintained the Marginal Risk area over parts of the Olympic and   
   northern Cascade Ranges in Washington as the next push of moisture   
   approaches late Sunday night into the early morning hours of   
   Monday. The models have shown some run to run differences with QPF   
   but no real clear trend. One consistent signal is that the   
   orientation of the moisture plume remained more southwest-northeast   
   than the event that just ended a couple of days ago. That still   
   points to the idea that rainfall may not increase in coverage or   
   intensity until late in the Day 2 period. Based on the expected IVT   
   plume increasing to over 600 at about the time that the flow   
   reaches the coast and begins to take on more of an on- shore   
   component...am inclined to follow the ensemble idea of 0.75 inches   
   to locally 1.5 inches of precipitation focused in the terrain. The   
   area is sensitive given the nearly week-long excessive rainfall   
   event...so any additional rainfall is expected to bring renewed   
   hydrologic concerns. Given a fairly tight window of opportunity for   
   rainfall during the outlook period...and at least some questions   
   about timing of the onset....still think a Marginal Risk is   
   sufficient for now although later shifts can adjust if needed.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 16 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   WASHINGTON AND OREGON...   
      
   Areal coverage of rainfall expands and rainrates increase on Monday   
   as a well defined atmospheric river continues to direct abundant   
   moisture into the Washington coastal ranges and Cascades that   
   gradually makes its way southward into Oregon. Given antecedent   
   conditions from the excessive rainfall event from earlier in the   
   week plus whatever falls on Day 2...the concern is for renewed   
   flooding potential in addition to worsening on-going flooding   
   especially in the terrain with potential for additional landslides   
   or mudslides. Saw little reason to modify the Slight risk area that   
   propagated into the Day 3 period from yesterdays Day 4 outlook   
   especially given the magnitude of the IVT and precipitable water   
   values forecast by the global models. The focus of the heavy   
   rainfall should gradually shift southward into an area that did not   
   receive as much rainfall from the previous atmospheric river.   
   Opted to extend a Marginal risk area along the coast as far south   
   as northwestern California more in deference to uncertainty of   
   timing as to the rainfall amounts.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8g954PfN3kpfoI-InQgq2iyZB0Rl7sdQy4Ee1cc72gpy=   
   iTjRbkOMihiyCSs6MwsyqQHfnoak3bcQgcE1GAkuoqXbMcE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8g954PfN3kpfoI-InQgq2iyZB0Rl7sdQy4Ee1cc72gpy=   
   iTjRbkOMihiyCSs6MwsyqQHfnoak3bcQgcE1GAkumbpuYA0$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8g954PfN3kpfoI-InQgq2iyZB0Rl7sdQy4Ee1cc72gpy=   
   iTjRbkOMihiyCSs6MwsyqQHfnoak3bcQgcE1GAkug_RdmXg$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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