TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167577.weather@1:2320/105 2da4ecd3   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 130847   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 130846   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak   
   instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5.   
   Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on   
   Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm   
   and severe weather potential.   
      
   The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on   
   Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther   
   north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak   
   instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may   
   create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the   
   Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger   
   scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on   
   Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.   
      
   A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not   
   support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it   
   would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS   
   Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to   
   potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern   
   Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the   
   weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal   
   mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather   
   threat.   
      
   Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of   
   the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from   
   Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but   
   significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level   
   pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential   
   low-end threat difficult.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426