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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 121922   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   222 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Dec 12 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 13 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Bann   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 13 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   WESTERN WASHINGTON...   
      
   ...2100 UTC Update: In terms of the guidance, some of the 12Z model   
   QPFs have come up a bit (GFS and ECMWF), while others have trended   
   down (CMC and NAM) in western WA across the Olympics and northern=20   
   Cascades. 12Z UKMet meanwhile was similar to 00Z. Still some timing   
   differences therefore with the onset of the next (more SW-NE   
   oriented) AR, with the GFS and ECMWF similar with the faster timing   
   and thus uptick in heavier QPF late in the period (00-12Z Sun). The   
   upshot was very minimal changes to the Day 3 Marginal ERO.=20   
      
   Hurley   
      
   Previous discussion below...   
      
   Introduced a Marginal Risk area over parts of the Olympic and   
   northern Cascade Ranges in Washington as the next push of moisture   
   approaches late Sunday night into the early morning hours of   
   Monday. Much of the rainfall on Sunday is currently expected to   
   fall north of the international boarder with rainfall in the   
   Pacific Northwest not increasing in coverage or intensity until   
   late in the Day 3 period. The 11/12Z UKMET was most aggressive with   
   QPF and there were several global models that limited QPF to under   
   a quarter of an inch. Based on the expected IVT plume increasing   
   to over 600 at about the time that the flow begins to take on an   
   on-shore component...am inclined to follow the ensemble idea of   
   0.75 inches to locally 1.5 inches of precipitation focused in the   
   terrain. The area is sensitive given the nearly week-long soaking   
   so any additional rainfall is expected to bring renewed hydrologic   
   concerns. Given a fairly tight window of opportunity for rainfall   
   in the Day 3 period and at least some prospect that the arrival of   
   higher rainfall rates and amounts will occur after 15/12Z...issued   
   a Marginal Risk for now. Later shifts can adjust if needed.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CpRiNQ5BaJ2Zfh_21Q_J54owzMxMfbBYp52dpwrDKA7=   
   kFz7xBcu-17_jq3Vu-CnsvDJ4JiOxwmaoNATTE3Ncsj4MxI$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CpRiNQ5BaJ2Zfh_21Q_J54owzMxMfbBYp52dpwrDKA7=   
   kFz7xBcu-17_jq3Vu-CnsvDJ4JiOxwmaoNATTE3N5UPL888$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CpRiNQ5BaJ2Zfh_21Q_J54owzMxMfbBYp52dpwrDKA7=   
   kFz7xBcu-17_jq3Vu-CnsvDJ4JiOxwmaoNATTE3NiFK8IXM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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