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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 111900   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 111859   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South   
   Florida and the Keys Saturday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
      
   An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western   
   upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday.   
   A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf   
   coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak   
   warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow   
   in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from   
   the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However,   
   forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg   
   MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While   
   shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely.   
      
   The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the   
   period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This   
   will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid   
   modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms   
   may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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