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   ACUS48 KWNS 110929   
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   SPC AC 110928   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified   
   trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley   
   at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across   
   the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting   
   strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early   
   next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge,   
   centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken,   
   but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the   
   offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf   
   Basin.   
      
   Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more   
   zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada,   
   downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but   
   become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians.  Short wave   
   developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there   
   is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return   
   flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern   
   Gulf by the middle of next week.  This could contribute to   
   thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through   
   portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into   
   Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front.  However, at this time, it   
   appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and   
   modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for   
   severe storms.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025   
      
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