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   ACUS03 KWNS 110733   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 110732   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the   
   Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain   
   strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period.  The   
   evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across   
   the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates   
   that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British   
   Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian   
   Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains.  Farther east, it still   
   appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again   
   contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the   
   Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through   
   Saturday night.   
      
   An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the   
   amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward   
   development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the   
   Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley   
   through western slopes of the Appalachians.  By late Saturday night,   
   a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of   
   the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic   
   through Gulf coastal areas.   
      
   In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating   
   from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface   
   frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and   
   southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level   
   troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin.   
      
   ...Gulf Coast states...   
   Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric   
   wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a   
   substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of   
   increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing   
   scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida   
   Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night.   
      
   Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development   
   is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal   
   areas, at least early Saturday.  Farther northeast, a narrow plume   
   of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf   
   boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient   
   for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of   
   the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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