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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 110530   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 110529   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025   
      
   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the   
   U.S. Friday through Friday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of   
   the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a   
   shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the   
   Pacific Northwest during this period.  As this occurs, digging short   
   wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level   
   troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great   
   Lakes vicinity.  However, in general, models indicate that the   
   persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually   
   lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient   
   tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio   
   Valleys and Mid Atlantic.  In lower levels, a leading surge of   
   colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the   
   Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday   
   night.   
      
   In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern   
   periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern   
   Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the   
   northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin.  Beneath   
   this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening   
   will continue.  In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to   
   develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is   
   possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become   
   conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z   
   Saturday.   
      
   ...Texas coastal areas...   
   Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various   
   models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing   
   conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower   
   through middle coastal areas late Friday night.  Highest   
   probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak   
   thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal   
   waters.  At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be   
   maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in   
   later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm   
   probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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