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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging   
   short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level   
   trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes   
   and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this   
   coming weekend.  It appears that this may provide support for   
   significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the   
   northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime   
   in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold   
   surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the   
   offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.   
      
   Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a   
   bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North   
   America.  However, there is notable spread evident within and among   
   the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the   
   upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within   
   splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies.   
   After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early   
   next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that   
   may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across   
   and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi   
   Valley vicinity.  The extent to which this could include a risk for   
   severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally   
   low through at least this period.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/10/2025   
      
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