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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025   
      
   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the   
   U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak   
   thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak   
   Saturday.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of   
   the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short   
   wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific   
   Northwest during this period.  As this occurs, digging short wave   
   troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level   
   troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great   
   Lakes vicinity.  However, in general, models indicate that the   
   persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue   
   to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient   
   tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio   
   Valleys and Mid Atlantic.  In lower levels, a leading surge of   
   colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the   
   Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday   
   night.   
      
   In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern   
   periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern   
   Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the   
   northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin.  Beneath   
   this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening   
   will continue.  In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to   
   develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is   
   possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become   
   conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/10/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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