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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 091502   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 091502=20   
   MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091800-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2254   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0902 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota   
   and far western Minnesota   
      
   Concerning...Freezing rain=20   
      
   Valid 091502Z - 091800Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Light freezing rain accumulations appear likely over the   
   next few hours across southeast North Dakota into adjacent portions   
   of South Dakota and far western Minnesota.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and 12 UTC upper air   
   soundings/analyses depict a zone from central ND into northeast SD   
   with low-level thermodynamic profiles favorable for freezing rain.   
   These analyses are supported by recent dual-pol imagery from KABR   
   which depicts a melting layer between roughly 0.5 to 1.5 km AGL. The   
   depth of this warm layer appears to be slightly deeper/stronger than   
   anticipated by morning guidance, suggesting that freezing rain may   
   be the preferred precipitation type over a more generic wintry mix.   
   Recent ASOS and mPING reports from the Jamestown, ND indicate   
   freezing rain is ongoing, which may become more widespread over the   
   next 2-3 hours as a region of stratiform precipitation spreads   
   east/southeast into northeast SD.=20   
      
   Despite a potential mid-level cool bias in recent guidance, the   
   general consensus is that the favorable zone for freezing rain   
   should constrict across western MN by late morning as low-level   
   warming promotes a transition to primarily rain across SD. Before   
   this occurs, light freezing rain accumulations appear probable.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/09/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6JGZxK8LJS78iRnfjQ21SvqgBN8lqZuzAPinFBDRCS05yutTWTrnNFkPSxKmTiW0A3nQZwbHn=   
   RTcMzdLb0iU-K2rLwY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...   
      
   LAT...LON   45839548 45599528 45319527 45039545 44869585 44869643   
               44959717 45129779 45319834 45609872 45959899 46299923   
               46859951 47169964 47499975 47869969 48039938 48049881   
               47789826 47169737 46539660 46079588 45839548=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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