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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025   
      
   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave   
   troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime   
   across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will   
   contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther   
   downstream late this work week into next weekend.  As this occurs,   
   cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and   
   northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of   
   the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern   
   Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.   
      
   Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial   
   southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf   
   coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the   
   northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive   
   surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend.   
   Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the   
   weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer   
   based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to   
   support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from   
   southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.   
   However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to   
   remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.   
      
   Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it   
   appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern   
   mid-latitudes of North America.  In lower latitudes, another   
   developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing   
   digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute   
   to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf   
   coast vicinity.  However, the potential for severe weather still   
   seems limited at this time.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025   
      
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