TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167443.weather@1:2320/105 2d9eedd8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 081940   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 081938   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   Valid 082000Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.   
   Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to   
   intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment.   
   This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front   
   continues to push offshore.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/08/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of   
   shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central   
   Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and   
   central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair   
   of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper   
   Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift   
   eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low,   
   currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses   
   northeastward.   
      
   A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface   
   low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire   
   CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL   
   preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis   
   indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the   
   front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be   
   displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and   
   thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening.   
   Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a   
   very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However,   
   limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall   
   severe potential.   
      
   $$   
      
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