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   SPC AC 080925   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained   
   near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest   
   medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude   
   Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next   
   weekend into early next week.  Relatedly, guidance is becoming more   
   unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the   
   Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms   
   of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses   
   south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of   
   the period.   
      
   It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to   
   modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return   
   could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of   
   the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend   
   into early next week.  This could promote destabilization supportive   
   of a risk for thunderstorm development.  However, with surface   
   cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,   
   the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of   
   limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025   
      
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