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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE   
   SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly   
   through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida   
   Peninsula.   
      
   ...South-central FL...   
   A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across   
   central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has   
   weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed   
   updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west   
   of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist   
   adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will   
   remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.   
   But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50   
   kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a   
   low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late   
   evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf   
   convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor   
   large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and   
   severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253   
   for additional short-term discussion.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/08/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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