TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167419.weather@1:2320/105 2d9de42e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 080047   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 080046=20   
   FLZ000-080245-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2253   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0646 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Areas affected...West-central Florida   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 080046Z - 080245Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat   
   will continue this evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms continues to approach   
   the western coast of Florida this evening. Within this line, a few   
   stronger supercells have developed. The KTBW WSR-88D is sampling a   
   somewhat tight circulation from a supercell around 15 miles   
   northwest of Anna Maria Island. Expect this storm/circulation to   
   weaken as it moves into the cooler (upper 60sF) shelf-waters near   
   the coast. Even if it does persist, it will likely be undercut by   
   the southward moving outflow boundary within the hour which should   
   end the threat. Additional storms are developing southwest of this   
   circulation (farther away from the southward moving outflow) which   
   may maintain some threat for the west coast of Florida through the   
   evening.=20   
      
   Some surface based instability is present on the 00Z TBW RAOB   
   (~750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While weak mid-level lapse rates will   
   likely inhibit new deep convection inland, enough instability may   
   exist to support maintenance of the supercells that develop over the   
   Gulf. These stronger storms may pose an isolated damaging   
   wind/tornado threat this evening given the veered low-level wind   
   profile.   
      
   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 12/08/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5FaJUqNHlDSTUpOMONrWZVHyhoHWFg44oKOzzt92WQ5BtCl6DIROsXrkPle2n4A376O6ykAeI=   
   Ok0YjA1ad2kGUCjbMc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...   
      
   LAT...LON   27868294 28058225 28078163 27838124 27528121 27338156   
               27178218 27058268 27318289 27868294=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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