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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1257   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   742 PM EST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Portions of the Central Florida Peninsula   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 080041Z - 080300Z   
      
   Summary...A combination of locally intense rainfall and cell   
   training should continue this evening which could cause flash   
   flooding in urban areas.   
      
   Discussion...Thunderstorms with isolated maximum rainfall rates   
   approaching 1.5 inches per hour have been moving on-shore and   
   tracking northeastward from near Tampa to Cape Canaveral early   
   this evening.  These storms appear to be associated with a   
   mid-level vorticity maximum approaching from the eastern Gulf of   
   America along the axis of a 2+ inch precipitable water plume and   
   axis of boundary layer moisture flux convergence.  Radar estimates   
   from TBW/Tampa Bay indicate that hourly amounts have peaked near   
   1.75 inches in parts of Pinellas and Pasco counties and that the   
   maximum rainfall totals were approaching 3.25 inches in the same   
   area.  These amounts were embedded within a broader 1.5 to 2,5   
   inch stripe of rainfall extending towards the central portion of   
   the peninsula.   
      
   With additional showers and thunderstorms located off-shore...the   
   potential for flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall   
   exists.  The 18Z HREF/RRFS showed the probability of 1 inch per   
   hour rates diminishing to less than 5 percent along the west-coast   
   by 08/03Z.  Their placement has been a bit too far north with the   
   intense rates. Even so...the HREF captured the evolution in the   
   broadest sense and was used it as a starting point for the MPD.=20   
      
   Maximum Hourly amounts 1" to 1.75" and local totals to 3.5" appear   
   possible where cells train and/or back-build, which would be most   
   problematic in urban areas and regions of poor drainage as well as   
   along small streams.   
      
   Bann   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6pVmRublY1OVsAJkJg8O46F9ZFJcJq11wZG7H7yfyyETA4AMO-6DQLkDZoaZVaqobmxQ=   
   aeSyDnVcKLlM3SGwH4kZuK0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   28538137 28538106 28328102 28008125 27678210=20   
               27488265 27958282 28338219 28488162=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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