TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167415.weather@1:2320/105 2d9dbc44   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 072157   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 072156=20   
   FLZ000-080030-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2252   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0356 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of west-central FL   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 072156Z - 080030Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and a brief tornado are possible   
   this evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A storm cluster has intensified this afternoon across   
   the northeast Gulf, where an offshore buoy recently reported a gust   
   of 52 kt at 2050 UTC. This storm cluster appears to be accompanied   
   by a midlevel vorticity maximum and surface low, as evidenced by   
   rather strong pressure falls at the buoy preceding the severe gust.   
   Downstream of this storm cluster, modest destabilization has   
   occurred across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula,   
   along and south of a baroclinic zone draped from near/south of Tampa   
   eastward to just south of Cape Canaveral.=20   
      
   Weak lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z TBW sounding) will tend to   
   limit instability across the peninsula into this evening. However,   
   any organized storm structures that approach the coast, or develop   
   inland near the boundary, may be able to persist within the   
   favorably moist environment near and south of the baroclinic zone. A   
   substantial increase in 0-2 km AGL flow has recently been noted in   
   the KTBW VWP, which will also aid in maintenance of any organized   
   cells/clusters, and provide sufficient effective SRH for low-level   
   rotation.=20   
      
   A brief tornado will be possible near and south of the surface   
   boundary, where at least weak surface-based buoyancy will persist   
   through the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds will also be   
   possible, especially with any of the stronger offshore storm   
   structures as they approach the coast later this evening.   
      
   ..Dean/Smith.. 12/07/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7e8V0kKyYNyHZDF_6digFczHshBgr-qxD4igE8qLqQA6qD9SgtETJQqq5xCgR4QcIfYFaQlNP=   
   wf206873sgVdYnO8tk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...   
      
   LAT...LON   28368332 28248220 28138168 27708170 26928200 26718206   
               26948288 27428366 28368332=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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