TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167410.weather@1:2320/105 2d9d9b9c   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 071938   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 071936   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL   
   PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across   
   parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through   
   the evening.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion   
   for additional information.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 12/07/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/   
      
   ...Florida Peninsula...   
   Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and   
   embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging   
   front over the north-central Gulf.  This rain activity is possibly   
   the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern   
   Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over   
   the central and eastern part of North America.  This disturbance is   
   forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA   
   coasts by mid-late evening.   
      
   Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and   
   combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby   
   limit destabilization.  However, a seasonably moist airmass will   
   probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing   
   prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into   
   the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this   
   afternoon and evening.  Ample mid- to high-level flow will support   
   storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or   
   two developing within this zone of convection.  The risk for   
   localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may   
   accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,   
   as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.   
      
   $$   
      
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