TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167404.weather@1:2320/105 2d9d6d4b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 071620   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 071619   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL   
   PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across   
   parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through   
   the evening.   
      
   ...Florida Peninsula...   
   Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and   
   embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging   
   front over the north-central Gulf.  This rain activity is possibly   
   the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern   
   Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over   
   the central and eastern part of North America.  This disturbance is   
   forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA   
   coasts by mid-late evening.   
      
   Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and   
   combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby   
   limit destabilization.  However, a seasonably moist airmass will   
   probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing   
   prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into   
   the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this   
   afternoon and evening.  Ample mid- to high-level flow will support   
   storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or   
   two developing within this zone of convection.  The risk for   
   localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may   
   accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,   
   as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.   
      
   ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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