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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1008 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   The inherited Marginal Risk aligned roughly along the   
   Florida/Georgia line was removed with this update. A stalled out   
   front over the area will act as a focal point for a corridor of   
   mostly light to moderate rain through the day Sunday. Instability   
   will be near zero, so any convection will be brief. Fast storm   
   motion along the front due to an approaching 130 kt jet will ensure   
   that any elevated convection will be short-lived. Finally, soils in   
   the area are well below normal. The dry soils in this area will   
   support any light rain being soaked right into the soil. This too   
   will temper any flooding threat. Due to all of the above factors,   
   the flooding threat was determined to be less than 5 percent, with   
   the highest risk in the Jacksonville urban area.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 09 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE   
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...   
      
   The first in a series of Pacific lows will move into the coast of   
   the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The combination of multiple days   
   of heavy rain as low after low moves into the coast will slowly   
   increase the flooding threat in western Washington and western   
   Oregon. The slow increase of the flooding threat is due to the   
   area's general favorability for rainfall to quickly run off,   
   resulting in a much higher threshold of heavy rain before there   
   are flooding concerns. The trailing cold front south of a strong   
   low that will move into British Columbia will be the focus for the   
   heavy rain as abundant Pacific moisture slams into the coastal   
   ranges and Cascades through the period. Soil moisture levels in   
   this area are around normal for this time of year, but repeated   
   days of heavy rain will cause the soils to saturate entirely. Thus,   
   once the soils are saturated, all additional rainfall will convert   
   to runoff very quickly. Moisture from the tropics will track   
   northeast around the northwestern periphery of an expansive   
   subtropical high off the California coast. This abundance of   
   Pacific moisture from the tropics will support the elevated flash   
   flooding threat over much of the upcoming workweek.   
      
   Very few changes were needed to the inherited Marginal and Slight   
   Risks. The Slight Risk area was trimmed away from Washington's   
   mountains, as the dominant precipitation type at the higher   
   elevations will be snow on Monday morning. Both risk areas were   
   also expanded south across west- central Oregon due to small   
   southward adjustments in much of the guidance supporting heavy rain   
   extending further south in Oregon.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5kyetVitQBsA2D2H-MaX7fOp0k5TW96XO-wuqHuMxoGn=   
   waqIlrn6LuKPNdt1PbLTnc66RzsPdOGoyjyWSZN8K2kOrBE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5kyetVitQBsA2D2H-MaX7fOp0k5TW96XO-wuqHuMxoGn=   
   waqIlrn6LuKPNdt1PbLTnc66RzsPdOGoyjyWSZN8PzTmlso$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5kyetVitQBsA2D2H-MaX7fOp0k5TW96XO-wuqHuMxoGn=   
   waqIlrn6LuKPNdt1PbLTnc66RzsPdOGoyjyWSZN8fPuRHTc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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