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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 060748   
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   SPC AC 060747   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the   
   U.S. Monday through Monday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging   
   from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will   
   continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the   
   Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period.  To the   
   southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is   
   forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western   
   Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,   
   downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern   
   mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.   
      
   Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across   
   the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some   
   downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean   
   and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air   
   contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front   
   through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf   
   Basin.   
      
   At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing   
   through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to   
   fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian   
   and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be   
   accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high   
   plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and   
   across much of the remainder of the U.S.   
      
   ...Florida...   
   It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to   
   limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the   
   southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at   
   least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast   
   coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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