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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the   
   central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears   
   negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild   
   offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while   
   being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this   
   period.  Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the   
   larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay   
   vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while   
   at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within   
   another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great   
   Plains through Southeast.   
      
   This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level   
   height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late   
   Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air   
   across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin.  Downstream, a   
   weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving   
   frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.   
      
   ...Florida...   
   Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with   
   subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western   
   Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly   
   across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday   
   evening.  However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly   
   low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary   
   layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and   
   become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.   
   It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of   
   thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold   
   front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.   
      
   At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the   
   environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe   
   weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or   
   two.  With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings   
   do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong   
   deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb.  At this   
   point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to   
   introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other   
   model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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