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   FOUS30 KWBC 060023   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   723 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   The 12Z models still present plenty of uncertainty. In addition to   
   limited instability, which may limit rates and the potential for   
   short-term runoff concerns; those models that do signal some threat   
   for flooding show notable north-south differences with their   
   placement for heavy amounts. That said, the previous Marginal Risk   
   generally covers the envelope of deterministic models that suggest   
   there is some potential for at least isolated flash flooding. This   
   includes the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMet.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Previous discussion...   
   A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become   
   convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as   
   instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While   
   many models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models   
   (the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized   
   training of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall   
   within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an   
   inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible   
   should 3"+ totals occur over a short period in a relatively   
   sensitive area.   
      
   Churchill   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve=   
   PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RpYN_6MA$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve=   
   PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RHhXyeDM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve=   
   PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RwMNv1n8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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