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   FOUS30 KWBC 052001   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   301 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Churchill   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   The 12Z models still present plenty of uncertainty. In addition to   
   limited instability, which may limit rates and the potential for=20   
   short-term runoff concerns; those models that do signal some threat   
   for flooding show notable north-south differences with their=20   
   placement for heavy amounts. That said, the previous Marginal Risk=20   
   generally covers the envelope of deterministic models that suggest=20   
   there is some potential for at least isolated flash flooding. This=20   
   includes the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMet.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Previous discussion...   
   A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become=20   
   convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as=20   
   instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While=20   
   many models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models=20   
   (the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized=20   
   training of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall=20   
   within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an=20   
   inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible=20   
   should 3"+ totals occur over a short period in a relatively=20   
   sensitive area.   
      
   Churchill   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=   
   f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9PLn07qjI$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=   
   f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9PDDtWRYY$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=   
   f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9P8fFKU00$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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