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   ACUS03 KWNS 051905   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 051904   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the   
   central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move   
   from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In   
   response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible   
   into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an   
   approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will   
   tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.   
      
   Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the   
   Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective   
   showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern   
   MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast   
   soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be   
   sufficiently deep for lightning production.   
      
   Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally   
   supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL   
   Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be   
   ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic   
   zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be   
   limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may   
   approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in   
   deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates   
   and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the   
   organized-severe threat.   
      
   ..Dean.. 12/05/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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