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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 051905   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 051903   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025   
      
   Valid 052000Z - 061200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across   
   the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies.   
      
   Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border   
   for later this afternoon and evening.  A strong shortwave trough and   
   associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into   
   the region.  This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while   
   forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE.  This   
   may result in a few lightning flashes.   
      
   No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered   
   thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and   
   evening.   
      
   ..Hart.. 12/05/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through   
   tonight.  Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a   
   trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the   
   Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region.  Visible-satellite   
   imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from   
   the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL   
   Panhandle and far southern GA.  Occasional weak elevated   
   thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary   
   from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA.  A small area for a   
   stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big   
   Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the   
   front.  However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing   
   for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm   
   activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some   
   diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to   
   upper flow.   
      
   $$   
      
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