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   FOUS30 KWBC 051504   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1004 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 pe=   
   rcent.   
      
   Cook/Churchill   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 pe=   
   rcent.   
      
   Churchill   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OFTHE FLORID=   
   A PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...   
      
   A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become   
   convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as   
   instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While=20   
   manymodels indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models=20   
   (the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized=20   
   trainingof convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall=20   
   within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an=20   
   inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible   
   should 3"+totals occur over a short period in a relatively=20   
   sensitive area.=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=   
   tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSef2mZlHY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=   
   tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSercN7tYA$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=   
   tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSeWdKK9II$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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