TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167339.weather@1:2320/105 2d9a6101   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 050724   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   224 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...   
      
   A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become=20   
   convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as   
   instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While many   
   models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models (the=20   
   00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized training   
   of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall within   
   nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an inherited   
   MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible should 3"+   
   totals occur over a short period in a relatively sensitive area.=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PQ0yiCjEwdE28VsIVdJY3PfJ52sNUNN3IuLRe2eAXOF=   
   r5-DuUsyO2foVEWmjIwpqZE3JGPoyTjfLWwncwPyTPdG4nY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PQ0yiCjEwdE28VsIVdJY3PfJ52sNUNN3IuLRe2eAXOF=   
   r5-DuUsyO2foVEWmjIwpqZE3JGPoyTjfLWwncwPyIyxd5SY$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PQ0yiCjEwdE28VsIVdJY3PfJ52sNUNN3IuLRe2eAXOF=   
   r5-DuUsyO2foVEWmjIwpqZE3JGPoyTjfLWwncwPyPukZDiU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426