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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 050547   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 050545   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025   
      
   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts   
   of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears   
   negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday   
   night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much   
   of North America through this period.  Downstream of lingering   
   mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will   
   continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,   
   across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,   
   and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through   
   Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to   
   linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an   
   increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to   
   subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through   
   western subtropical Atlantic.   
      
   In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther   
   offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central   
   Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the   
   northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward   
   northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.   
      
   ...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...   
   Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer   
   destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across   
   the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday.  While this   
   could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective   
   development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level   
   temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to   
   limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or   
   two.   
      
   Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday   
   night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent   
   downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great   
   Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the   
   subtropics.  This might include convection rooted with lift   
   associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north   
   as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/05/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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