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   FOUS30 KWBC 050049   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   749 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   The low-end Marginal Risk that was in effect across parts of the   
   Southeast (North FL and Panhandle, southern AL-GA, southern SC) has   
   been removed. Model QPFs from the 12Z have trended lower, while   
   also still showing latitudinal spread with the axis of max totals.   
   All of the rainfall is post-frontal, so any available instability   
   would be elevated, and even then there's not much per the guidance   
   (<500 J/Kg). Probability Match Mean (PMM) of 12Z global guidance is   
   generally 0.75-1.00" in 24hrs, which is actually lower than the 17Z   
   NBM.   
      
   Given the latest areal-average deterministic QPF (again ~0.75-1.00   
   in the 24hr period from 12Z Sat to 12Z sun 4hrs), along with the   
   fact that much of the Southeast is between a D2-D4 drought with 3   
   hourly FFGs between 2.5-3", probabilities of even getting close to   
   those values are quite low -- certainly sufficiently low to remove   
   the Marginal.   
      
   Hurley   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZCVqVMUF-sSdZPoiP-4-h9YdmnMOcjAEiaQCxRgg9nK=   
   vzqQgafmqaGh2EnMFhzXipgeknGcpbbVrUY9YWNoCplutnA$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZCVqVMUF-sSdZPoiP-4-h9YdmnMOcjAEiaQCxRgg9nK=   
   vzqQgafmqaGh2EnMFhzXipgeknGcpbbVrUY9YWNo45_otGc$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZCVqVMUF-sSdZPoiP-4-h9YdmnMOcjAEiaQCxRgg9nK=   
   vzqQgafmqaGh2EnMFhzXipgeknGcpbbVrUY9YWNozAUP-sk$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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