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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 041250   
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   SPC AC 041248   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025   
      
   Valid 041300Z - 051200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave   
   trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of   
   southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the   
   southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent,   
   single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the   
   eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress   
   northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent   
   flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well   
   north of any notable low-level moisture.   
      
   Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX   
   Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the   
   LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central   
   Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a   
   broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts   
   producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL   
   and the FL Panhandle.   
      
   The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm   
   front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and   
   thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts   
   are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this   
   precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS,   
   and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based   
   buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across   
   far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more   
   organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this   
   threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated   
   thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a   
   cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no   
   severe thunderstorms expected.   
      
   ..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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