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   FOUS30 KWBC 040825   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   325 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Dec 04 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL   
   GULF COAST...   
      
   Upglide/warm-advective elevated convective activity is ongoing this   
   morning across portions of the central Gulf Coast with localized   
   hourly totals topping out near an inch or so (per MRMS estimates).   
   Right entrance ascent to 150-170 kt jet centered over the Ohio=20   
   Valley will keep isentropic moisture flux across the surface front=20   
   that will remain oriented along and south of the coast. A weak=20   
   mid-level shortwave will slide from west to east along the=20   
   southern periphery of the jet streak maintaining 20-25kt of west-=20   
   southwesterly 850mb flow which given ~1.75" PWs and the potential   
   for lingering marginal instability (MU CAPE up to 1000 J/kg now,   
   but forecast to decrease below 500 J/kg later this morning) may=20   
   maintain elevated convective development into midday. Internal=20   
   training of back-building convective elements will present the   
   greatest potential for higher rainfall totals across the Bayous of   
   south-central LA.=20   
      
   Hi-Res CAMs are in general good agreement with the heaviest=20   
   rainfall along and south of I-10 (where 3" exceedance probs from   
   both the 00z HREF and experimental REFS are contained). Little   
   change in the inherited MRGL risk, which will likely be pulled   
   around midday as convective activity wraps up.=20   
      
   Churchill/Gallina   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA   
   AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...   
      
   A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become   
   convectively active by Day 3 (particularly late Saturday night into   
   Sunday morning) with the potential for localized training along the   
   boundary with nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained   
   an inherited MRGL risk with instability being the primary limiting   
   factor, but both global ensembles (GEFS and ECENS) suggest decent   
   odds of 2" exceedance (which may translate to localized totals as=20   
   high as 3-4" with the addition of CAMs in the coming days).=20   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71tzcbxQlFrtmZTclqJX6DsLJOE9BIRgDqMsU8JY-KRk=   
   6jSWrUspdgxnvgX9q4rrlRxO5D3Y-PAivZeIluuC1WaJtZY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71tzcbxQlFrtmZTclqJX6DsLJOE9BIRgDqMsU8JY-KRk=   
   6jSWrUspdgxnvgX9q4rrlRxO5D3Y-PAivZeIluuCMWeaYWI$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71tzcbxQlFrtmZTclqJX6DsLJOE9BIRgDqMsU8JY-KRk=   
   6jSWrUspdgxnvgX9q4rrlRxO5D3Y-PAivZeIluuCGBuL8Yc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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