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   ACUS01 KWNS 031950   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 031949   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025   
      
   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A stronger storm or two is possible along the upper Texas Gulf Coast   
   into the Sabine Valley. Marginally severe hail could occur.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   No changes to the outlook are necessary. See the previous discussion   
   for additional details.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 12/03/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of   
   mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains   
   through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow   
   will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,   
   which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)   
   lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast   
   region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off   
   the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward   
   towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave   
   increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and   
   steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered   
   thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX   
   Coastal Plain and central to southern LA.   
      
   ...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...   
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along   
   the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection   
   atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is   
   that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast   
   period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.   
   However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will   
   likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast   
   where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy   
   profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic   
   environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and   
   effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm   
   interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any   
   particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic   
   environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of   
   small to severe hail.   
      
   $$   
      
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