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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0656 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025   
      
   Valid 031300Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the   
   western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.   
      
   ...East/Southeast TX into Central/Southern LA...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined southern-stream   
   shortwave trough progressing southeastward along the southern CA/NV   
   border vicinity. This shortwave is forecast to continue   
   southeastward through the Lower CO River Valley region before then   
   pivoting more eastward across the Southwest. An extended fetch of   
   mid-level southwesterly flow preceding this wave is expected to   
   strengthen as it moves across the Southwest. At the same time,   
   southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will strengthen,   
   with an attendant increase in warm-air advection from the western   
   Gulf across the TX Coast into LA. This warm-air advection will help   
   support modest buoyancy atop a shallow stable layer, promoting   
   elevated thunderstorms from east/southeast TX into central and   
   southern LA.   
      
   Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to quickly increase in the 03Z to   
   04Z time frame across southeast TX before spreading eastward and   
   northeastward throughout the remainder of the period. Moderate to   
   strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend across this entire   
   region, supporting strong deep-layer shear. This strong shear could   
   support some occasionally stronger/more organized updrafts capable   
   of small hail. Even so, weak buoyancy should limit updraft strength   
   and duration, keeping any hail threat minimal. Mid 60s dewpoints may   
   advect onto the immediate middle and upper TX coast as a weak   
   surface low moves northeastward through the region. However, even   
   with these higher dewpoints, surface-based convective inhibition   
   will likely prevail given deep warm layer anticipated. This should   
   keep the tornado potential very low, despite substantial low-level   
   storm-relative helicity.   
      
   ..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/03/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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