TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167271.weather@1:2320/105 2d9710e7   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 022034   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   334 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Wed Dec 03 2025 - 00Z Sat Dec 06 2025   
      
      
   ...Northeast...=20   
   Days 1...   
      
   Low pressure now moving north along the Mid Atlantic coast will   
   deepen rapidly through the evening as the associated shortwave   
   trough moves through the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, and assumes a   
   negative tilt as it moves offshore. This system will move quickly   
   overnight, tracking from near the 40N/70W benchmark at 00Z to east   
   of Nova Scotia by daybreak. The back edge of the associated=20   
   precipitation shield will move quickly to the east as well, with=20   
   snowfall ending for most areas apart from coastal northern New=20   
   England by tomorrow morning. Additional snowfall accumulations=20   
   after 00Z are expected to be light for most areas, with WPC=20   
   probabilities indicating the chance for accumulations greater than=20   
   4 inches are negligible for most areas, with some 10-30=20   
   probabilities confined to coastal Maine and southern New Hampshire.   
      
   ...Northern to Southern Rockies...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A low amplitude shortwave trough dropping through the Pacific   
   Northwest today is forecast to amplify as it digs south along the=20   
   Sierra Nevada/Great Basin overnight, with the model consensus=20   
   showing a well-defined positively-tilted trough dropping into the=20   
   Southwest/Four Corners on Wednesday. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold   
   front will settle south into the southwestern U.S. A low level=20   
   circulation developing and dropping south through western Colorado=20   
   will help to enhance snowfall over the western Colorado ranges,=20   
   notably the San Juans, where WPC guidance shows some isolated=20   
   higher probabilities for accumulations greater than 6 inches on Day   
   1. More widespread higher amounts are expected to develop along=20   
   the eastern ranges from the Front Range south to the northern=20   
   Sangre de Cristos - supported by increasing upslope flow on the=20   
   backside of a sharp ridge nosing south along the High Plains.   
      
   =46rom Wednesday night into early Thursday, the shortwave over the   
   Southwest will begin to eject east, focusing snow further south   
   over the Rockies. Amounts are expected to me mostly light, with WPC   
   probabilities indicating amounts over 6 inches will remain mostly   
   confined to the higher peaks of the southern Sangre de Cristos.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes & Northeast...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   An arctic front associated with an amplifying trough over eastern=20   
   Canada will sweep across the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday,   
   setting off a period of lake effect snow showers that will continue   
   into early Thursday before a shortwave ridge moves over the region.   
   Overall, accumulations for the two-day period are expected to be=20   
   generally light. Although some parts of the eastern U.P. are likely   
   to see totals over 4 inches.   
      
   Meanwhile, the previously noted front will advance east of the   
   lakes, moving across the Northeast on Thursday. While heavy   
   accumulations along the front are not expected, snow squalls remain   
   a concern, with the NAM continuing to show some notable Snow=20   
   Squall Parameter values as the front advances across Upstate New=20   
   York and New England. This indicates a brief period of intense=20   
   snowfall that is likely to reduce visibilities and impact travel.=20   
   Behind the front, lake effect snow showers will develop briefly off   
   of lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday night into Thursday, with the=20   
   best chance for heavy accumulations centered over the Tug Hill=20   
   region.   
      
   The aforementioned shortwave ridging is forecast to develop ahead   
   of another shortwave that is expected to dive southeast across   
   central Canada on Thursday and amplify as it brushes the upper=20   
   Great Lakes Friday morning. Most of the better forcing and lake   
   enhancement is expected to remain north of the lakes; however some   
   lighter amounts are likely, especially over northern Michigan.=20   
      
      
   ...Mid South to the Mid Atlantic...   
   Day 3...   
      
   The previously noted shortwave over the Southwest will move east of   
   the southern Rockies on Thursday, becoming less amplified as it   
   moves into a region of confluent upper flow. However it will   
   provide enough lift to spread some light precipitation north into   
   the Mid South/Tennessee Valley, with a low end chance for some=20   
   light wintry precipitation/ice accumulations Thursday night into=20   
   early Friday. A greater chance for light snow/ice accumulations is=20   
   expected to develop farther east over the southern Appalachians,=20   
   where a cold air wedge is forecast to linger long enough to support   
   at least some minor accumulations on Friday.=20   
      
   Pereira   
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5dX0zkdWbchHEQyfBkNAry9V7K3ebVmkRcD5w6GTZEdic=   
   Rf4ygZ7kFSH-wJMsfxpoP2Zrn2TyshbLy4IoKDLGbL13OA$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426