TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167257.weather@1:2320/105 2d96a2db   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 021245   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 021244   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0644 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025   
      
   Valid 021300Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the eastern   
   Florida Panhandle into northern Florida this morning. The stronger   
   storms could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief   
   tornado.   
      
   ...Eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL...   
   Recent surface analysis placed a cold front from eastern TN to off   
   the far western FL Panhandle. A weak low precedes this front over   
   the central FL Panhandle, centered roughly 40 miles north of AAF. A   
   diffuse warm front extends northeastward from this low through   
   southern GA to just off the Carolina coast. This frontal low is   
   forecast to continue eastward today, weakening as it progresses   
   across far southern GA and eventually becomes absorbed into a broad   
   surface trough extending from the Carolinas.   
      
   Some deeper convection has been noted throughout the night within   
   the confined warm sector preceding this surface low as initially   
   more cellular activity has now congealed into more of a cluster.   
   Showers and occasional deeper updrafts capable of producing   
   lightning will remain possible ahead of the surface low as it moves   
   eastward. However, the overall intensity and duration of any deeper   
   updrafts will be tempered by limited buoyancy and a lack of stronger   
   large-scale ascent. Even so, wind fields will remain strong and the   
   potential for a damaging gust and/or brief tornado will persist,   
   particularly with any of the more cellular convection that develops.   
      
   ...Outer Banks...   
   A secondary surface low is beginning to develop just off the SC   
   coast. This low is expected to deepen throughout the day while   
   moving quickly northward along the immediate coast of NC before   
   becoming firmly offshore off the northern Mid-Atlantic. This track   
   should keep any notable surface-based buoyancy well offshore, where   
   the overall environment will favor supercells. A strong storm or two   
   may approach the Outer Banks region, where dewpoints could approach   
   the mid 60s just ahead of the surface low, but the general   
   expectation is for any strong to severe storms to remain offshore.   
      
   ..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/02/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426